THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER GREAT LAKES TO SOUTH TX SUMMARY Isolated damaging winds are possible from the Lower Great Lakes to south Texas beginning this afternoon. Isolated severe hail may also occur in south Texas. LA to South TX A wavy cold front extends from northwest LA to the Edwards Plateau of west TX. This boundary should slowly slide south through the day, aided by occasional convective development along and behind it. This will result in the frontal zone becoming further divorced from the southern extent of strong mid-level westerlies over the Red River Valley. In addition, warm-sector low-level winds will remain weak, limiting SRH. Nevertheless, rich boundary-layer moisture characterized by low 70s surface dew points will support a plume of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon ahead of the front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by early afternoon and will persist into at least early evening. This setup should yield several slow-moving multicell clusters capable of locally strong gusts. Isolated severe hail will also be possible, but should tend to be more favored closer to the Rio Grande where mid-level lapse rates remain steeper. KY to the Lower Great Lakes Weak convection is ongoing across the Lower OH Valley to western TN along and behind an eastward-moving cold front. As surface temperatures warm through the 70s to mid 80s farther downstream of this activity, a well-mixed boundary layer is expected as dew points largely hold in the mid to upper 50s. This should result in a plume of meager buoyancy with MLCAPE reaching around 500 J/kg amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Renewed/intensifying convective development is expected towards early afternoon. While much of the stronger 500 mb flow will lag behind the surface cold front, adequate 850-700 mb southwesterlies in conjunction with the steep low-level lapse rates should support sporadic strong gusts as semi-organized clusters spread east-northeast into early evening.
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Cleveland, Texas 7-Day Weather Forecast
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